US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said that hurricanes may have affected payrolls in some industries, but it is not possible to quantify the net effect. My estimate is that Hurricane Helen depressed October payrolls by 40-50k.
The BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector. If these two guesstimates are right then the underlying rate of increase in payrolls would be +/- 100k compared to an average of 148k over the previous 6 months.
US Fed
That's evidence that the labor market is cooling . Enough to justify 25 bp cut by Fed next week. But not a 50 bp Jumbo cut.
ECB
As a coda to the Fed, the ECB is also likely to cut 25 bp but not more at its Dec 12 meeting. This is because the Q3 GDP figures were less awful than expected and cpi rose a tad to 2%, core (+3.7%) and service inflation (+3.9%) are sticky and high and the labour market is tight as a tick at 6.3%.
BoJ
Meanwhile the BoJ did nothing and sounded more confident in continuing to normalise monetary policy. I don’t buy it. The US election and domestic political pressure will determine whether Ueda tightens or not in December. My bet is not!
Assets.
Central banks are unlikely to be the key to currency or bond markets for the rest of the year. Politics will be. My guess is Trump victory means a stronger US$ and higher bond yields and KH would mean the opposite. I view any rise in the equity market as a result of a Trump victory as ephemeral. My forecast is for a bear market in 2025 based on 4 factors: Geopolitics turning nasty and incurring economic costs the market cannot ignore; a reconnect between Macro-Uncertainty and Financial Market volatility; a lack of new positive surprises that drove markets this year; and the AI, Magnificent 7 euphoria coming down to earth.