First, I don’t see tariffs working. They work as a tax on growth and inflationary. And second and third round effects heightens these effects. Second sovereign debt sustainability and leverage are set to get worse - not only in the US. Tariff revenue does not offset lost tax revenue from lower growth. There will be a sovereign debt crisis in 2025
Third global fragmentation is accelerated. War in ME with Israel aiming to topple the Mullahs is baked in cake but spillovers underestimated. Ukraine will be abandoned and Russia emerges victorious.
Fourth, China’s economy will be pushed below stall speed by protectionist measures. This heightens risk of Xi moving against Taiwan - nothing like a little nationalist fervour to distract from the economic plight of the masses
Fifth Trump policies will cause the Fed to reverse policy . This is result of bigger budget deficits and higher inflation caused by tariffs.
Sixth I don’t see Trump reform policies as moving the dial much on growth though it will help certain sectors.
Finally, I view the disconnect between Macro and Market volatility as unsustainable. This has nothing to do with President Trump’s policies . But it means we are starting from the wrong place. For wealth preservation portfolio - see last page of report