Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia.
This can have spillover effects on markets because it can destabilise Russia which will destabilise Europe. Even if you can’t short the Ruble, you can short everything else that Russia depends on like the assets of Hungary, Slovakia and Austria and their energy companies and banks. And Russia still has over USD 300bn in foreign debt outstanding.
But the most important point I make here (Donald lend me your ear!) is that enforcing a truce in Ukraine is the dead wrong strategy! Double down on the war. Russia may be winning on the battlefield, but it is losing the economy. Let the cannons roar and Putin will be suing for peace in 8 months