Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

#Greyzone Warfare#Energy#Trump#Russia#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#IDF#Hezbollah#Gaza#Escalation#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Investment Conclusion Winners: 
Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. 

The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a unitary state (with an autonomous region for the Kurds) - at least for now. If it does, the next Syrian ruler will have to be Sunni – not Alawite like Assad. Saudi Arabia & the Gulf States are likely to be its backers. And Iran will be the common enemy. And Russia will not have anything to say. 

This does not solve the Israel (+US) ultimate war to de-nuke Iran. It just makes Iran weaker. Trump’s coming clamp down on Iranian trade will push the ball down the hill. But the war is likely to be later. This is the first big hit to Axis of Autocracies for a long time. Russia and Iran have shown themselves to be militarily useless. Not a squeak has been heard out of Beijing. 
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