Quantum Strategy

Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements

Update | David Roche | 10 Jul 25
#Tariffs#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)#US Federal Reserve Independence.#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#FOMC Minutes#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements

 I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in late summer & autumn due to delayed effect of tariffs. This sets us up for a battle between the Administration & the Fed with the issue of Fed independence being central. That can’t help the US$. 

Finally the tariffs being announced piecemeal are starting to add up to something meaningful if they are implemented. The tariffs being announced “scheduled” for August 1 add up to an extra 4% in top of the current average effective tariff rate of 16.8% . 
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