Summit – The Good Story within the Bad
Markets will ignore the Summit results as investor redlines of financial damage have not been breached. These red lines were:
(1) Trump losing patience with Putin and coming down hard on Russia with more tariffs on the clients of its oil exports - with China in the crosshairs.
(2) Trump forcing compromise on Ukraine and the Europeans with the threat, if his terms were not met, of total US withdrawal of paid military supply to Ukraine and consequent disruption of NATO.
The barometer to watch is India in the coming weeks. This will tell us if Trump reverts to his “dire consequences” policy as Putin continues with his Ukraine war. Or if Trump intends to prioritise other issues with a higher chance of success. Then the tariffs on India may not be implemented.