Odd Bins – Cutting long HK Equities – TICS Contradict – Shipping’s Pseudo Boom.
Hong Kong equities are being cut back. The Hang Seng has performed. It’s a proxy for China where things are getting economically tougher. And excess liquidity, judged by the HKMA Aggregate Balance, is falling and Hibor O/N rates are heading to 2.5%.
Other things dealt with in this note contradict my view on the US$. One example is the US Treasury’s TICs data which points to no capital outflows from the US.
On shipping: claims that US container ports are booming is based on the recovery from the Liberation Day trade “full stop”. It has already faded.