France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.

#EU#Geopolitics#EU Commission#ECB#France#French Sovereign Debt#Euro#French Government#FOMC#Francois Bayrou
 Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. 

Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the risk of the EU being divided and weak at a critical juncture for dealing with the new US Administration and Ukraine. This could contribute to Eur weakness to below parity to the US$. But this forecast relies more on the ECB cutting rates by more and for longer than the US Fed.  

Stay short French Sovereign Bonds Vs long Bunds. 
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