The Mini Podcast on Macro that may matter to markets - US Presidential, China Stimulus, Israel & Iranian assets - the "Big If". Read More

A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero, Read More

The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high. Read More

There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will. Read More

Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely. Read More

Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear. Read More

The Plenum: Much ado about nothing Well, the third Plenum went according to script. Nothing, nothing and then nothing.  Report follows. Read More

QT is shrinking of central bank balance sheets. The balance sheets of the developed countries’ central banks have shrunk nearly 17% from their 2022 peak. But this is not reducing liquidity in any way that matters to financial markets. There are two reasons for this explored here.... Read More