Robust conversation on: * German Election: the next four years are critical for the german economy, defence, europe. Domestically, in order to deprive the AfD of youth and lower income groups’ support, the economy must become the rising tide to lift all boats. * US Trump ... Read More
Tariffs will continue to be a source of instability in markets. The McKinley Factor, (January 26, 2025) & The Anatomy of Exceptionalism , ( February 10, 2025) analysed the key role of tariffs in President Trump’s thinking and how this influenced how they were used. No need ... Read More
Carolyn Wright & I discuss the state of the world. the big issue is whether there is life beyond Trump. we cover the break up of the atalntic - alliance and NATO. US data depresses the market is this a blip or a preursor of the fear of Trump policies? China AI - no doubt g... Read More
We are staying long German equities, particularly defence, on the grounds that the election result will result in economic reform and state investment in key sectors like the military and productivity boosting mechanisms laid out in the Draghi and Letta reports. Read More
A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is... Read More
Here are 13 things that may happen as the Liberal World Order is replaced by the Unmentionable......... and how to protect yourself from the fallout! Read More
Germany Bundestag Elections. A victory for a Grand Coalition led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz, made up of the major parties (CDU/CSU + SPD plus possibly FDP or Greens), which controls two thirds of the seats in Bundestag & Bundesrat, would open the door to dramatic reform in... Read More
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More
Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM... Read More
David Roche - Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters Trumps new April Tariffs - what to expect. Munich - the end of NATO and Liberal World Order. US Retail - the fading Exceptionalism Dream... ..... and upcoming data for the week. Read More