President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More
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14 Jul 25
Monday Odd Bins.
Shipping Data. So far, Chinese total exports have weathered US tariffs without a contraction. Exports to other places than the US have grown and more than offset losses to the US. That is "normal" as US exports are only US 500bn out of a total of nearly US$ 4 trn. The questi... Read More
13 Jul 25
Trade Update
#Tariffs#Trade.#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current... Read More
10 Jul 25
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
#Tariffs#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)#US Federal Reserve Independence.#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#FOMC Minutes#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More
03 Jul 25
Interregnum
Interregnum Investment Conclusion This is a short-term interregnum of peace and happiness which will not last long. On May 23 the portfolio sold 10% of safe haven assets (oil & gold) and bought European equities and the Euro. It is probable that President Tru... Read More
02 Jun 25
Update: US Container traffic and Escalation in the Baltics and Ukraine?
Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t... Read More
29 May 25
Trump Trade Policies in disarray
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Fentanyl tariffs#Court of International Trade Ruling
The US Court of International trade has ruled that the Trump Administration’s trade tariffs, both reciprocal and fentanyl, are illegal. The US Court of International Trade says Trump overstepped his authority - using a 1977 federal economic emergency law. The law does not ... Read More
13 May 25
The Phoney Peace?
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#China Tariffs#Fentanyl tariffs
The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more... Read More
05 May 25
China: No Pushover!
#Tariffs#US-China Cold War#US-China Relations#US-China Trade War#US-China Trade Relations#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#Fentanyl tariffs#China trade war escalatory dominance#China Trade War#China & Global South
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as... Read More
20 Apr 25
On a Train in China
#Tariffs#China Stimulus#US-China Trade War#People's Bank of China (PBoC)#US-China Trade Relations#PBoC (People's Bank of China)#China Renminbi#Economy (China)#US-China#Trump's 100 Policy Blitz.China GDP#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause... Read More
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