Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum... Read More
Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude... Read More
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
RTHK - The Close. A look forward at the coming year. What are the key factors that could drive markets up or down. Read More
RTRHK The Close. The Legacy of Jimmy Carter. China's data - industrial profits and a look into the things to watch in 2025. Putin's game plan under the Baltic Sea. The surprises for 2025: reversal of Fed policy; The war to end all wars between Iran and Israel; Put... Read More
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of ... Read More
RTHK the close discussion of China - impacts of Trump appointments & Tariffs and the never ending question of whether Chinese stimulus is fit for purpose. Read More