Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its ... Read More
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10 Dec 24
Middle East & Russia: Update
#Geopolitics#Russia#Middle East#Lebanon#IDF#Putin#Hezbollah#Trump Policy#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of ... Read More
08 Dec 24
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
#Greyzone Warfare#Energy#Trump#Russia#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#IDF#Hezbollah#Gaza#Escalation#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u... Read More
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