FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
30 Dec 24
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters.
#Asia#China#Trump#Central Banks#Environment#Russia#Ukraine#Israel#Iran#ECB#Putin#Ishiba#China Real Estate#China Stimulus#Dark Fleet#US Federal Reserve#Baltic Sea#Baltic States#Undersea Cables
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Micro Podcast on Macro! Sign on for Free Research Trial: https://www.QuantumStrategy.org Coming up his week: - The pulling forward of demand in China that will create gaps in demand later: Exports, Consumer Durables, Autos and... Read More
23 Dec 24
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - David Roche: The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters. The 5 things that could go wrong or right next year. The data for this week Read More
23 Dec 24
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
#US#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Protectionism#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#US Fed#Israel#Iran#France#Markets#Putin#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Germany#Escalation#Trump Policy#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More
23 Dec 24
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
#US#Protectionism#Tariffs#Sanctions#Oil#China#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Russia#Ukraine#US Fed#Chairman Powell#France#Japan#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#China Stimulus#Trump Policy#Turkey#French Sovereign Debt#French Government#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
19 Dec 24
Peter Lewis Money Talk - The Fed removes the markets' drip feed. .....what does it mean for economies and markets
#Trade#Tariffs#Trump#Recession#Yen#Populism#ECB#Markets#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
The Fed acts to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2025. Underlying this is that the Fed Funds Rate is already close to the neutral rate and more cuts are not needed given that the economy is motoring and inflation is a bit high. But the knock-on effects on markets arou... Read More
02 May 24
Central Bank Update
#Yen#Germany#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Inflation#USD#European Central Bank#EUR#Renminbi#Treasury Securities
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Jul 21
ECB - Reframing Your Dreams
#Euro#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Dollar#European Central Bank#Banking#Inflation Target#Policy Stance#Asset Purchases#Short-term Market Reaction#Comparative Analysis
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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