Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le... Read More

RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wright, Richard Harris & David Roche discuss Jackson Hole policy shift and Trump’s plot against the US Fed. Market implications. Read More

So we know that when President Trump does not like reality he dismisses it and those who make him aware of it. Given the President's doubtful grip on reality we ask the question: How well is the the US economy actually doing? We get behind the volatility of people and data a... Read More

Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More

Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will ... Read More

Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: The Data: China's NBS PMIs and Industrial Profits. DeepSeek - the deeper meaning of disruption. Trump the first week- the economic consequences of ripping up Alliances. The Fed - when will Trump ... Read More

Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum... Read More

FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

The Micro-Podcast on Macro Matters What data matters this week: EU PMI's; Caixin PMI's; The US Fed Minutes; and Friday's US Jobs Report. The Three Macro-economic and Four Geopolitical Causes of the Coming Bear Market. Read More