Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
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07 Oct 24
Winter of Discontent
#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
04 Oct 24
Middle East: The Inevitable War That'll Matter to Markets
A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero, Read More
26 Aug 24
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Weaponisation#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Hezbollah#Gaza
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely. Read More
19 Apr 24
Middle East - Small Attack, Big Message
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
25 Jan 24
Things I Believe - Without Proof
#China#Trump#Geopolitics#Ukraine#Middle East#Populism#Taiwan#Grayzone Warfare#Strategy Archive#Europe#US Dollar#Democracy#Investments#European Central Bank#Rates#Policies#Confrontation
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
12 Jan 24
Macro Trilogy
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
27 Oct 23
Dark Clouds
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
24 Aug 23
The Decade Of Going Going Gone
#China#Middle East#Moscow#Strategy Archive#Latin America#Globalization#Services Sector#Africa#Beijing#Friend-Shoring#Economic Struggles#Ideological Alliance
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
04 Nov 22
Oil To Boil
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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