Navigator: ME – The Gordon’s Knot.
(THIS IS ROUGH AS I AM ON THE ROAD – SO NO EDITING!).
I am staying out of oil as a hedge. I continue to add to gold. And I remain short US equites and long China – equites and the currency. In currencies, I’m a disbeliever in the US$ as a safe haven and am sticking to RMB, AUD & SGD as longs.
The likelihood is that 20-30% more shipping will be transiting the Straits of Hormuz a month from now. That would bring oil prices down to $85 or so. Unless the US takes out Kargh Island as an oil facility.
Beyond that the outlook is pretty dire. Most option involve a long conflict with poor options for the US to disengage but worse for all if it does, The key conviction is that Iran emerges as the strategic victor despite losing the war militarily, Iran ends up with far more power over the Middle East than it had the day the war started.
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