Peter Lewis Money Talk: The Warsh Appointment; The Metals Market Meltdown, and the Japanese el;ections. Read More
20:58:32 GMT
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David Roche
Latest Media
Peter Lewis Money Talk: The Warsh Appointment; The Metals Market Meltdown, and the Japanese elections.
Your Latest Strategic Recommendations
Sell long oil (Brent) and put proceeds in SGD cash
11 Jan 2026
Remain short US$ & US Treasuries
09 Jan 2026
08 Jan 2026
08 Jan 2026
Do not chase any assets based on euphoria about Venezuela. QS stays short US$ VS SGD & AUD. QS remians short sovereign debt and long gold. Long oil and long defence stocks. Our equity focus remains Asian EMs with an emphasis on China
07 Jan 2026
05 Jan 2026
05 Jan 2026
05 Jan 2026
04 Jan 2026
01 Jan 2026
Stay long China assets
30 Dec 2025
24 Dec 2025
24 Dec 2025
22 Dec 2025
19 Dec 2025
19 Dec 2025
Use any peace deal announcemtn to build up defence equity exposure; increase gold, short Euro into SGD & AUD
18 Dec 2025
The (long) Wiiners from the 8 Global Disruptions:China (equities & the RMB); Asian assets (India and SE Asian equities) and Gold (demand driven by internationalisation of the RMB). There are safe haven commodities like energy and copper and strategic metals.
15 Dec 2025
15 Dec 2025
14 Dec 2025
11 Dec 2025
Winners: : China (equities & the RMB); Asian assets (India and SE Asian equities) and Gold (demand driven by internationalisation of the RMB). Finally, there are safe haven commodities like energy and copper and strategic metals, like Lithium (if you can find them). And there are big losers: US assets (bonds, equities & the US$); European assets (except defence & nuclear) and the Euro. Global equities are likely to fall 20-30% and stay down.
10 Dec 2025
09 Dec 2025
08 Dec 2025
The INR currency exposure in long Indian equitiy position has been hedged into SGD
08 Dec 2025
Japan’s budget is bad and will not produce growth but higher long rates. Takaichi’s confrontation with China will be long lasting. Japan thus loses its safe haven investment status. Long Equity and Yen positions have been liquidated. Short 10yr JGB positions are maintained or added to.
01 Dec 2025
Japan will be in Chinese cross hairs as a front line state trying to ringfence China. Yen and Japanese assets are no longer safe haven.. We stay short JGBs but exit long Nikkei and Yen.
28 Nov 2025
27 Nov 2025
24 Nov 2025
Deacrease exposure to Europe even further and own more Asia (China and EMs)
22 Nov 2025
21 Nov 2025
19 Nov 2025
19 Nov 2025
Further increase in gold holdings
17 Nov 2025
Go long the beleficariies of the New Cold War: Gold, RMB, China Fin Tech stocks
14 Nov 2025
Buy into assets that will protect you from the New Cold War & The Nuclear Arms Race. - Gold, Oil, Safe Land, China Equities & RMB, AUD, SGD. Add equity exposure in Brazil and South Africa. Short Soveriegn Debt globally & EU, US,, Japan
10 Nov 2025
09 Nov 2025
06 Nov 2025
05 Nov 2025
04 Nov 2025
Reiteration: Long /overweight: Energy, Land in safe places and selected Commodities and Gold. Own the currency and assets of China, Japan, Australia and Singapore.
02 Nov 2025
Despite the 12 month postponement of US tariffs and port fees on China shipping Japanese & Korean ship building remain a long recommendation. The reason is this pause does not change the urgency of the US re-building its own merchant marine before China pulls the rug from under US supply chains!!!!
31 Oct 2025
30 Oct 2025
29 Oct 2025
28 Oct 2025
26 Oct 2025
23 Oct 2025
22 Oct 2025
20 Oct 2025
Adding long SGD & AUD to the Wealth Preservation Portfolio.
19 Oct 2025
The coming rulings from the US Supreme Court are likely to damage equity markets. Stay conservatively positioned
16 Oct 2025
15 Oct 2025
15 Oct 2025
14 Oct 2025
13 Oct 2025
no change in long Yen,, short JGBs, long Nikkei and short French 10yr OATS.
12 Oct 2025
09 Oct 2025
sat short French sovereign bonds
06 Oct 2025
06 Oct 2025
The Sanae Takaichi government, at the margin, means more fiscal spending. Therefore the Wealth Preservation Portfolio takes on: • More exposure to Japanese equities. • More shorts on JPG 10yrs. • And a careful watch for any change in BoJ policy on Yen longs but so far, no change.
05 Oct 2025
04 Oct 2025
29 Sep 2025
26 Sep 2025
25 Sep 2025
23 Sep 2025
21 Sep 2025
18 Sep 2025
16 Sep 2025
16 Sep 2025
Asian equities raised ay expense of European equites. Safe haven assets: Gold, Oil increased. RMB long established. Yield steeper added to US 10 yr Treasury short
16 Sep 2025
16 Sep 2025
15 Sep 2025
Add Asian assets as a hedge against war in Europe. That's in addition to Gold, Oil and US Defense Stocks.
14 Sep 2025
ECB definitively done easing unless (trade) shocks occur. Speaks for weaker US$ Vs Euro for now - But subject to rising geopolitical risk.
12 Sep 2025
10 Sep 2025
Stay clear of European risk assets. Outright war with Russia is approaching . Use gold and Yen rather than the Euro as a counter part to short US$
10 Sep 2025
Sticking too short French 10 yr OATs & Long Italian 10 yr BTPs
09 Sep 2025
08 Sep 2025
Maintain holdings of yen as safe haven. we are neutral Japanese equities and short 10yr JGBs. These positions are unchanged
07 Sep 2025
Add some long Italian 10yrs BTPs to short French 10 yrs OATs position
07 Sep 2025
06 Sep 2025
05 Sep 2025
02 Sep 2025
02 Sep 2025
01 Sep 2025
01 Sep 2025
Focus on Wealth Preservation maintained. A market crash with extensive economic damage is likely within the next 6 months. Risk assets could go higher as the US Fed cuts rates. But such cuts are unwarranted. Risk assets are in bubble terrain. The US$ has only begun its long terms decline
31 Aug 2025
30 Aug 2025
29 Aug 2025
28 Aug 2025
25 Aug 2025
25 Aug 2025
23 Aug 2025
Stay short US$. US Equities and other bubbe assets will rise to a crescendo. Stay away. Rally in US long term bonds wll be short lived & yield curve will steepen
22 Aug 2025
Stay short US$. Don't get sucked into US asset bubbles. The drop in US long bond yields is purely temporary
22 Aug 2025
22 Aug 2025
21 Aug 2025
20 Aug 2025
20 Aug 2025
19 Aug 2025
19 Aug 2025
Long Hong Kong Equity positions are being cut.
18 Aug 2025
18 Aug 2025
18 Aug 2025
18 Aug 2025
17 Aug 2025
17 Aug 2025
16 Aug 2025
16 Aug 2025
13 Aug 2025
12 Aug 2025
12 Aug 2025
US Yield Steepeners are attractive. The US $ is not. Short long Treasuries.. Use Yen as a long anchow for US$ shorts.. Unjustifiably lower rates by the Fed might keep the equity market up a while longer. But we stay out or short US equities
11 Aug 2025
10 Aug 2025
09 Aug 2025
07 Aug 2025
06 Aug 2025
Selling long positions in Germany & EU. Reinstating long Yen safe haven position
04 Aug 2025
04 Aug 2025
04 Aug 2025
30 Jul 2025
28 Jul 2025
no change - the deal is bad for the US and worse for Europe. stay out of US assets and EU equities
28 Jul 2025
27 Jul 2025
25 Jul 2025
25 Jul 2025
No change in our building of longs in safe haven assets
24 Jul 2025
21 Jul 2025
Japanese election result means end of Japan as safe haven. Closing out Yen long safe haven positions. Closing long (overweight) Nikkei positions. Entering short 10Yr JGB positions
21 Jul 2025
Negative for long duration US Treasuries. Bad for fiancial intermediaries (such as traditonal banks and creddit card companies)
20 Jul 2025
18 Jul 2025
adding some long exposure to LNG & Brent as insurance against disruption of Russian crude exports after 50 days.
15 Jul 2025
14 Jul 2025
no change - reverting to risk off since 07.12.2025
14 Jul 2025
Reversing the 10% of portfolio invested in risk asset during the 12 day war and reinvesting them in safe haven assets like Gold, Yen, Euro & 2yr Bunds
13 Jul 2025
11 Jul 2025
11 Jul 2025
Maintaining 20% cut in Safe Haven Assets and similar increase in exposure to EU Equities for the moment
10 Jul 2025
07 Jul 2025
07 Jul 2025
Remiain short US assets & the US$. On June 23 we sold 10% of safehaven assets and invested the proceeds in EU equites and the EUR.
03 Jul 2025
01 Jul 2025
30 Jun 2025
Confirming allocation of about 10% of Wealth Preservation Portfolio to Equties plus sale of oil & trimming of gold as of 06.23.2025
25 Jun 2025
24 Jun 2025
As per yeserdays report: increase exposure to risk assets!. Sell oil! Trim gold!
23 Jun 2025
Reducing safe haven assets - gold and oil - and putting the proceeds to work in EU equities
23 Jun 2025
23 Jun 2025
US particpation in the Iranian war could lead the way to a more optimistic global scenario... but not before it upsets the markets and casues risk assets to rise
21 Jun 2025
20 Jun 2025
Increasing exposure to safe haven assets (Gold, Yen, Euro) and buying oil (Brent @ 76 bbl)
18 Jun 2025
17 Jun 2025
17 Jun 2025
16 Jun 2025
16 Jun 2025
Do not buy oil, the US$ or US Treasuries as safe-haven assets. Wait!
13 Jun 2025
10 Jun 2025
Do not chase US equities here and stay short US$ and US Treasuries
10 Jun 2025
09 Jun 2025
Short US $ and US financial assets - particularly US Treasuries
06 Jun 2025
Waiiting on investments in the won and Korean equities despite decisive election result
06 Jun 2025
Stay shrt US Treasuries
05 Jun 2025
Stay short US Assetsc& the US&
03 Jun 2025
02 Jun 2025
02 Jun 2025
Stick to Wealth Preservation Portfolio
02 Jun 2025
30 May 2025
Do not chase markets on Court of International Trade Ruling
29 May 2025
27 May 2025
short US$ and US.assets including Tresuries & Equities
26 May 2025
Short US assets & the US$. Long Yen, Euro & Gold. Long EU, Japanese, Indian, HK & Chinese Equities. Long Bunds. Short US Treasuries
23 May 2025
21 May 2025
Buy Hong Kong assets
21 May 2025
20 May 2025
Stay short the US$.versus Yen, Euro and Gold,
18 May 2025
18 May 2025
16 May 2025
15 May 2025
14 May 2025
Increasing US$ shorts into long EUR & JPY. Selling more US S&P Equities to raise cash & gold to max exposure.
13 May 2025
11 May 2025
Maintain defensive stance
07 May 2025
07 May 2025
06 May 2025
06 May 2025
05 May 2025
Do not join in the. current rally of risk assets,
02 May 2025
Stay short US$, Treasuries & Stocks
30 Apr 2025
29 Apr 2025
Stick to the conservative asset allocation in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio at the end of this note.
28 Apr 2025
stay underweight or short risk assets despite the current relief rally! Own safe haven assets like the Yen and Gold!.
26 Apr 2025
No change
23 Apr 2025
23 Apr 2025
23 Apr 2025
Stay short US$ assets and long yen, gold and euro. Do not be sucked into market rally based on a peace dividend or a pause in the trade war.
22 Apr 2025
20 Apr 2025
stay out of the dollar and hold gold, Euro, Yen and defence stocks. Stay underweight fixed income and global equities
15 Apr 2025
Own gold. Own the Euro, Yen, 2-year Bunds and gold – not US Treasuries.
14 Apr 2025
Do not short China equity or the RMB
11 Apr 2025
Do not short China equity or the RMB
11 Apr 2025
Stay long Defence stocks world wide and long Germany.
10 Apr 2025
Stay short US equities and bonds and long EU and Japan equities and the currencies. Buy some German 2yr Sovereign Debt and sell US 2 yr Treasuries
10 Apr 2025
09 Apr 2025
08 Apr 2025
07 Apr 2025
07 Apr 2025
07 Apr 2025
Bear market strategy maintained. The remake of the global geopolitical & economic order will take years anf be felt for decades. This is not one to buy on dips!
07 Apr 2025
07 Apr 2025
Stay out of Korean assets and the Won
05 Apr 2025
Short US equities and the US$. Long Euro, Yen and Gold
04 Apr 2025
Stay Short/underweight Global Equities. Stay short US$ & long Yen & Euro, Small long GBP v EUR.
03 Apr 2025
02 Apr 2025
Stay short French 10yr sovereign debt
01 Apr 2025
Long GBP vs Eur and long UK Equities (Index position)
01 Apr 2025
Short/Underwieght US Equities and the US$. Long Defence. Long Yen, Euro, EU & Japanese Equites. Long China Tech+AI+Consumer stocks. Long Indian Equities.
30 Mar 2025
Stay long Defense in Europe and Asia. Stay long European and Japanese erquities within global underwieghting of equities. Long Yen, Euro, Gold, Oil, LNG
19 Mar 2025
Continue to sell US Exceptionalism Assets. Go long EUR, Yen and European and Japanese equities. Buy China and Indian Equites
18 Mar 2025
14 Mar 2025
10 Mar 2025
Buy German equities. Sell long Bunds. Go long defence stocks globally.
09 Mar 2025
Short Taiwanese stocks and the TWD.
08 Mar 2025
Long EUR
07 Mar 2025
05 Mar 2025
05 Mar 2025
03 Mar 2025
03 Mar 2025
Sell US assets and the US$ to increase cash, gold as well as euro and yen
03 Mar 2025
Go long oil and LNG
27 Feb 2025
25 Feb 2025
24 Feb 2025
24 Feb 2025
Buy German equities
24 Feb 2025
Buy German Equities
23 Feb 2025
21 Feb 2025
Go long German Equities as a core equity overweight position. By dint of this we are relatively overwieght EU equities in a global portfolio
20 Feb 2025
20 Feb 2025
Buy Gold, Oil, LNG, Inflation linked bonds, Defence stocks China AI producers and the Yen.
18 Feb 2025
17 Feb 2025
17 Feb 2025
15 Feb 2025
Sell US Excepttionalism assets including the US$..
14 Feb 2025
13 Feb 2025
10 Feb 2025
10 Feb 2025
Sell US$ & Equities
06 Feb 2025
06 Feb 2025
05 Feb 2025
04 Feb 2025
04 Feb 2025
03 Feb 2025
03 Feb 2025
03 Feb 2025
03 Feb 2025
03 Feb 2025
31 Jan 2025
30 Jan 2025
a game-changer for China and Chinese tech assets
28 Jan 2025
28 Jan 2025
Re balance portfolios away from US markets to peer developed markets and reduce US$ overwirght positions.
28 Jan 2025
27 Jan 2025
27 Jan 2025
27 Jan 2025
21 Jan 2025
20 Jan 2025
20 Jan 2025
20 Jan 2025
19 Jan 2025
14 Jan 2025
13 Jan 2025
13 Jan 2025
Stay long Brent oil as insurance
13 Jan 2025
09 Jan 2025
Bear Market 2025 and global recession - sell bubble assets and raise cash,
08 Jan 2025
07 Jan 2025
07 Jan 2025
06 Jan 2025
30 Dec 2024
30 Dec 2024
28 Dec 2024
27 Dec 2024
26 Dec 2024
26 Dec 2024
26 Dec 2024
Stay Short French Sovereign Bonds (10yrs)
24 Dec 2024
23 Dec 2024
23 Dec 2024
23 Dec 2024
US Fed to cut rates once in 2025. Sell interest sensitve stock and long bonds
20 Dec 2024
20 Dec 2024
19 Dec 2024
19 Dec 2024
19 Dec 2024
19 Dec 2024
18 Dec 2024
16 Dec 2024
16 Dec 2024
13 Dec 2024
12 Dec 2024
10 Dec 2024
09 Dec 2024
09 Dec 2024
08 Dec 2024
04 Dec 2024
03 Dec 2024
03 Dec 2024
02 Dec 2024
28 Nov 2024
25 Nov 2024
25 Nov 2024
25 Nov 2024
Buy German Equities
22 Nov 2024
19 Nov 2024
18 Nov 2024
11 Nov 2024
07 Nov 2024
06 Nov 2024
05 Nov 2024
04 Nov 2024
01 Nov 2024
29 Oct 2024
28 Oct 2024
27 Oct 2024
26 Oct 2024
22 Oct 2024
21 Oct 2024
21 Oct 2024
18 Oct 2024
16 Oct 2024
15 Oct 2024
14 Oct 2024
07 Oct 2024
07 Oct 2024
07 Oct 2024
07 Oct 2024
04 Oct 2024
02 Oct 2024
02 Oct 2024
01 Oct 2024
30 Sep 2024
30 Sep 2024
29 Sep 2024
26 Sep 2024
23 Sep 2024
23 Sep 2024
19 Sep 2024
12 Sep 2024
11 Sep 2024
09 Sep 2024
09 Sep 2024
03 Sep 2024
28 Aug 2024
26 Aug 2024
26 Aug 2024
20 Aug 2024
13 Aug 2024
10 Aug 2024
05 Aug 2024
02 Aug 2024
01 Aug 2024
01 Aug 2024
23 Jul 2024
22 Jul 2024
21 Jul 2024
15 Jul 2024
10 Jul 2024
09 Jul 2024
05 Jul 2024
04 Jul 2024
02 Jul 2024
25 Jun 2024
24 Jun 2024
23 Jun 2024
23 Jun 2024
17 Jun 2024
13 Jun 2024
06 Jun 2024
05 Jun 2024
03 Jun 2024
28 May 2024
24 May 2024
24 May 2024
17 May 2024
15 May 2024
13 May 2024
13 May 2024
02 May 2024
19 Apr 2024
14 Apr 2024
14 Apr 2024
01 Apr 2024
31 Mar 2024
31 Mar 2024
22 Mar 2024
19 Mar 2024
15 Mar 2024
15 Mar 2024
15 Mar 2024
06 Mar 2024
06 Mar 2024
06 Mar 2024
27 Feb 2024
12 Feb 2024
01 Feb 2024
26 Jan 2024
25 Jan 2024
23 Jan 2024
14 Jan 2024
12 Jan 2024
08 Jan 2024
18 Dec 2023
12 Dec 2023
04 Dec 2023
30 Nov 2023
28 Nov 2023
24 Nov 2023
21 Nov 2023
17 Nov 2023
01 Nov 2023
31 Oct 2023
31 Oct 2023
27 Oct 2023
23 Oct 2023
14 Oct 2023
11 Oct 2023
08 Oct 2023
03 Oct 2023
01 Oct 2023
21 Sep 2023
19 Sep 2023
14 Sep 2023
12 Sep 2023
08 Sep 2023
24 Aug 2023
09 Aug 2023
31 Jul 2023
25 Jul 2023
24 Jul 2023
06 Jul 2023
03 Jul 2023
01 Jul 2023
29 Jun 2023
25 Jun 2023
24 Jun 2023
15 Jun 2023
06 Jun 2023
01 Jun 2023
22 May 2023
18 May 2023
18 May 2023
15 May 2023
15 May 2023
08 May 2023
04 May 2023
01 May 2023
30 Apr 2023
20 Apr 2023
18 Apr 2023
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12 Apr 2023
10 Apr 2023
05 Apr 2023
03 Apr 2023
27 Mar 2023
20 Mar 2023
16 Mar 2023
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13 Mar 2023
13 Mar 2023
11 Mar 2023
09 Mar 2023
02 Mar 2023
17 Feb 2023
13 Feb 2023
09 Feb 2023
07 Feb 2023
02 Feb 2023
30 Jan 2023
23 Jan 2023
20 Jan 2023
19 Jan 2023
16 Jan 2023
10 Jan 2023
04 Jan 2023
24 Dec 2022
21 Dec 2022
15 Dec 2022
06 Dec 2022
05 Dec 2022
03 Dec 2022
01 Dec 2022
28 Nov 2022
21 Nov 2022
17 Nov 2022
09 Nov 2022
04 Nov 2022
04 Nov 2022
04 Nov 2022
31 Oct 2022
27 Oct 2022
David Roche
I was born in Ireland which I left as soon as possible with ambitions to write. I studied at Trinity, INSEAD and did a CFA and C Dip Af on the side.
Before setting up Quantum Economics I was a strategist at JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Independent Strategy.
My inspirations are tectonic plateshifts, like the Fall of the Wall; the Russian invasion of Ukraine; the death of liberal economics and globalisation. So my mind fires up when history is no guide but creative thinking is.
Where there is discontinuity there is value in strategic thinking. Where general preoccupation is the Fed’s next move there is not.
Jorge Luis Borges once said that most novels shouldn't have been written because they would have been better short stories. I write micro-books. Here are some of them, which you can find on the Books page:
- New Monetarism (2008)
- Sovereign Discredit (2010)
- Democrisis (2012)
- Death of Democracy (2018)
- Quantum Economics (2022)
- Living in the Grayzone (2024)
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