EU Gas – a Potential Crisis of US Making
An EU energy crisis could result from a cut in US LNG supply to Europe (57% of LNG supply and 5% to EU total energy use). The result of a 100% stop in US LNG shipments to the EU for 2-3 months would reduce EU gas inventories to levels below the time of the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
Reductions in US LNG deliveries to the EU could happen for poltical reasons (President Trump is attempting to use LNG as a weapon in his trade war) or because the drop in Qatari LNG supply results in Asian users scrambling to secure US contracts to the detriment of the EU.
The current price of EU TTF at E56.MWh does not seem to reflect the risks. and is a good hedge against them. TTF was priced at 7 times this current level after Russia invaded Ukraine
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