
- Short term none because oil is blockaded
- Long term BIG because UAE outside OPEC could boost Gulf oil output by 12-15% and global output by 2%. This could reduce global oil prices 5-8%
- But price fall probably won’t happen as poltical framentation in OPEC will increase Iranian power in the Gulf. That will not lead to “normal” trade. So extra supply from UAE may either not reach the market - or will have a high risk premium attached to it.,