This is the report version of a WhatsApp com sent to clients on June 1.
Nothing is moving in the Straits of Hormuz. The ME hole in crude oil supply means the world is on a glide path to fall over the supply cliff in summer and beyond. But markets sail on as if nothing were happening. Well, it will!
I predict that the oil supply cliff is what will prick the AI bubble. People falsely think that AI and its trappings are a new autonomous economic state independent of economic constraints. This is what will be prove wrong.
But suppose I am wrong and traffic is freed up in the Gulf. What would that mean in terms of global oil prices and supply? Read on to find out! But probably the positive impacts would be slower (except for the flush out of the 150mn bbl. in captive oil tankers) and less than the financial markets seem to be building into oil prices today.
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