Four themes this week. (WhatsApp clients have received early briefing on themes in BLUE)
1. Trade War between the EU and China is now inevitable.
2. Chinese sell off of strategic crude oil reserves and corresponding reduction in imports do not change the Global Crude Oil Supply Deficit and the coming Global Supply Cliff. But it changes the location and timing of the Cliff in non-Chinese economies. We have update our Supply Deficit and Cliff figures as a sensitivity to reflect China inventory liquidation of 200mn bbl. (My guestimate of how far it’ll go)
3. The 1000 ships that the US administration is claiming to have shepherded around Hormuz are largely a fiction that has no bearing on the quantity of oil reaching world markets.
4. The kerosene market for airlines is right in the cross hairs of the energy shortage. It is profiled below
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