Oil at $100, France under pressure, and a tougher road for emerging markets.
Our strategist David Roche was on NDTV Profit today, and his message was cautious. The energy crisis is only "paused," not over.
Key takeaways:
🛢️ Oil: Prices are likely to hover near $100 a barrel. Supply of refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks remains a concern.
🇫🇷 France: Years of political instability and delayed reform have left deficits wide and growth weak. French bond yields have now risen above Italy's, a warning sign.
🇪🇺 Euro risk: A renewed euro-area debt crisis is possible, but not David's base case. Security imperatives keep Europe together, and the ECB has the tools to step in.
🌏 Emerging markets: Rising US yields are lifting the global cost of capital and pulling money toward developed markets, making financing harder for EMs.
His main warning is the combination: elevated energy prices, higher US yields, stressed European finances and reduced capital flows to emerging markets
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