There will be a bear market in the next 12 months.
The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war
on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine
again becoming economically relevant to markets;
unrequited market expectations for growth gaps to narrow
and inflation to decline. Whomever wins the US Presidential
election, it will spell the end of Fed easing – Trump sooner but
Harris later. It all leads to a high risk stagflationary global
economy by mid 2025 with rising geopolitical influence on
the economy.
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