Navigator.
The QS team tells me that “Odd bins” is a bad name because investors don’t want to look for research in a bin & my writings are garbage enough without associating them with a bin. So the new name is “Navigator”. Investment themes:
- Markets could be affected if the US 28-Point Plan leads to a breakdown in transatlantic relations. European assets most vulnerable.
- Gold remains a long despite Russian sales. Gold’s role in the new RMB internation trade system is a damn side more important.
- Japan: the fiscal plans are rubbish. The primary deficit is likely to head towards 6%. Expect JGB 10 yr yields to hit 2.5%! The China tourism battle will cause a recession. Which way will Ueda the rabbit jump faced with the twin headlights of recession and fiscal profligacy? Based on bunny DNA the likelihood is for a BoJ paralytic freeze. Our long Yen position is under review. Long Japanese equities too are under review. We remain short JGBs. •
- Bubbles will continue to deflate. They are the biggest threat to markets and economies. The framework for analysing bubbles is republished in simplified form inside. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is already positioned for a bursting bubble world. It appears at the end of this report.