Quantum Strategy: The Autumn Strategy Video: What to expect this fall.
Rather than send you a report taking stock of two way risks, here is a short video that does the job!
This Autumn is unlikely to be "The season of mists and mellow fruitfulness". There are few too many storm lurking for that.
This video analyses the up-side and down-side risks for markets this Fall.
There are four long term risks:
- US Fed independence and interest rates;
- The inevitable make or break in President Trump's cognizant dominance by Putin:
- Tariffs: are their effect temporary or of long duration?
- US "success" in unifying and energizing the BRICS - SCO - GLOBAL SOUTH to form a coherent whole that diminishes US power and threatens the US$.
There are, in addition, three immediate risks:
- US Tariffs and the legal challenges to the use of (IEEPA) emergency powers to enact them. What will a Supreme Court ruling supporting or reversing the lower courts' judgements against President Trump's use of IEEPA mean for markets?
- The French political crisis and what it means for fiscal arithmetic and sovereign bond yields.
- Snapback enactment on Iran under the JPCOA which reimposes about six UN trade sanctions on Iran from pre-2025 days.
A written briefing on each of the 3 immediate risks is in your inbox. I hope that the 20 minute video presentation discussing the upside and downside of both long and short term risks is of use to you.