Whispers from Implausibility.
If you believe in an effective peace deal, then forget oil! The real plate-shift will be China and the EU.
If peace breaks out Russia can offer China little – economically speaking. The US won’t. And the EU must.
Europe and China have twin potentials. China starts investing seriously in EU economies. And the EU becomes the buckle on the belt with which China will seek to isolate the US. Europe can then stand up and settle old scores with Washington.
That is the real Peace Dividend. It is rather a long way from “the end of history”. And for the moment it is but a faint implausible whisper. But not forever