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19 Nov 24

Mini Podcast on Macro

#World#Trade#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Globalisation#Protectionism#Sanctions#Industrial Raw Materials#Politics#China#US Election#Trump#Geopolitics#Volatility#Yen#ECB#Global Outlook#China Real Estate#JGBs#China Stimulus#Xi#Biden

The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More

05 Nov 24

Money Talk US Election, China Stimulus and the US Fed

#US#Trade#Sanctions#Politics#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#US Fed#Chairman Powell#Global Outlook#Macro Uncertainty

Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More

26 Sep 24

Japan- The LDP leadership election - Why leadership matters

#Asia#Security#Greyzone Warfare#Elections#Politics#China#Japan#LDP#Bank of Japan

Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security Read More

12 Sep 24

Central Banks: Heads Up & Heading Down

#Currency#Politics#Trump#Central Banks#Recession#Harris#US Fed#Draghi#Populism#ECB

IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US... Read More

03 Sep 24

The Significance of the Inconsequential

#World#Trade#Geo-economics#Quantum Economics#Politics#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Draghi#EU Commission#EU Parliament#Populism#Tueringen#Saxony

There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will. Read More

10 Aug 24

Ukraine- Kursk Offensive

#Conflict#Security#Greyzone Warfare#Cold War#Sanctions#Energy#Industrial Raw Materials#Politics#Geopolitics#Russia#Ukraine#Water

Kursk offensive has potential to be a turning point in this war if Ukraine achieves strategic objectives. If so market effects would be significant. Read More

05 Aug 24

Troubles Weekend

#Currency#US#Politics#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Monetary Policy#Volatility#Recession

Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why! Read More

01 Aug 24

CNBC Europe. US Presidential - Trump Vs Harris- the economic and market consequences

#US#Protectionism#Politics#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris

Who is worse (or better!) for the Economy & Markets - Trump or Harris Read More

21 Jul 24

Joe Biden Withdraws

#US#Elections#Politics#US Election

It is confirmed that Joe Biden has withdrawn his candidacy for the Presidency. He endorses Kamala Harris as his successor. This choice is likely to be endorsed by the Democratic Party. Report follows. Read More

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