Investment Conclusion. Germany is on the cusp of a major opportunity to reform its economy and galvanise that of the EU as well. The process is within its political grasp. If it lets it slip it could well be the EU that shatters on the floor. This piece is the storyline of how t... Read More

The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More

The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More

RTHK - The Close; Carolyn Wright & David Roche discuss: The latest pre announced and endlessly repeated China stimulus package. Why it mitigates risk but will not help demand. How will China respond to Trump tariffs- demand stimulus? trade retaliation? other forms of... Read More

CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce! Read More

I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More

Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More

Quantum Strategy: The Mini-Podcast on Macro on a Monday: This weeks Macro Events: the US Election - what it means for markets - contrary to expectations a Trump victory would be bad for markets; The Fed - a 25 bp cut; China the National Peoples' Congress Standing Committee will ... Read More

US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic... Read More

Japanese elections mean weak coalition government. Markets will see Yen weaken - Boj stops normalising policy. Weak yen and likelihood of fiscal packages (to buy votes) means stringer equities. JGB tields will rise reflecting bigger deficits. Read More