The Gormless Eejit! Investment Conclusion Can equities continue to rise while US bonds and the US$ to fall? I got this wrong so far. This note looks at the economic logic of this divorce. It could continue if disruption is over. But that’s unlikely. The wider economi... Read More

Here is the anticipated inward US container port data for the next three weeks - as provided by the Port of Los Angeles. (The port of Los Angeles handles 40% of US containerised imports. 50% of its traffic is from China. That is why i use it as a proxy for US container ... Read More

The taxation and breakdown of global capital flows (Written on a plane - unchecked, illiterate but important) QS strategy includes capital controls and taxation of foreign investment as part of the fragmentation of world order. It is also part of the potty e... Read More

Korea after the elections. Lee Jay-Keung has one big advantage in that his party controls parliament and he is president. But he faces many daunting challenges that he does not control: 1. The economy is 87% international trade. If US 25% tariffs are imposed it will p... Read More

Martin, Christine and I debate the path of US fiscal policy. Implications for Fed policy and more….. what own instead of US Treasuries? Answer: Bunds………….gold and yen Read More

Markets getting used to tariffs - The case for and agaist. What FOMC ‘s Waller says. Read More

Three ideas: Trump is more likely to escalate than de-escalate after the International Trade Court ruling. What does this mean for markets. And the escaltion of Russian hostilities in Europe - one to watch and which markets are ignoring Read More

Alex Wong, Peter Lewis and David Roche look at each major market and reason on why they are where they are and then whatvthat tells us about where they are going? Read More

Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t... Read More

Uncertainty as a Certainty – Wealth Preservation Portfolio Investment Conclusion There are no changes to the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. The ruling by the US Court of International Trade (USCIT), that the President’s use of the International Emergency Ec... Read More