The US-European Meetings: Good as it’ll get but not good enough Investment Conclusion Markets will ignore the outcome of the Washington talks. There are no implications for higher tariffs on Russian oil trade and its beneficiaries. So oil will settle down in the high ... Read More

President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More

Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t... Read More

Below is the content of joint European & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal finalised in London this week. It was given to the US side before Witkoff's visit to Putin. We shall see what comes out of that. The relevance to investors is this. US objectives diverge inceasi... Read More

Ukraine. Rubio and Witkoff will not attend talks in London after Ukraine rejects parts of the Ceasefire Proposal (giving Crimea to Russia). Ex General Kellog will go instead. Putin will be delighted. Zelensky can now be framed as the reason why the Cease Fire P... Read More

The Truce Proposal Update. British newspaper (FT) article claims Putin ready to agree a ceasefire based on actual front lines and abandon precondition that the unoccupied remainder of the so-called (Witkoff) five Ukrainian provinces be handed over to Russia in advance o... Read More