Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was... Read More
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10 Apr 25
Germany - The Coalition is Signed! Here are the spending plans - bullish for growth and equities
#Europe (Germany#German Grand Coalition#German Stimulus#German Infrastructure & Defence Spending#EU Implications of German Defence Spending#German Infrastructure Spending#German Equities & Bunds
Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) Agreed & Spending Plans. Positive for German equities. Bearish for long term Bunds (but not short term bunds). Marginally positive for the Euro. The German coalition agreement and the published spending plans are positive fo... Read More
10 Apr 25
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi... Read More
09 Apr 25
Money Talk: with Peter Lewis and Louisa Fox
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Quantifying what Trump means for US GDP & Others' Read More
08 Apr 25
CNBC Markets with Lim Hui Jie
#Defence#Defense Systems#Defence Expenditure#Defense Strategies#EU Defence Spending & Strategy#Defense Spending#US Defence#Global Defence Boom
good CNBC article on global defence spending as a result of the End of Alliances. Read More
07 Apr 25
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - David Roche - US Trade and Trump’s Tariffs – Disruption or Design?
#Trump Policy#Trump Administration#Donald Trump#Trump Tariffs.#President Trump#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
President Trump aims to do two things. One is to destroy the liberal world order and ditch the US alliances that constitute it. The second aim is to kill off globalisation and replace it with a nationalist economic model. The major tool to achieve these aims is a unified geo-eco... Read More
07 Apr 25
RTHK - The Close.
Why Trump is not a buy-on- the-dips opportunity but a change in world order that destroys globalisation and the liberal world order in ways that will profoundly change what you invest in. Read More
07 Apr 25
RUSI - US Trade & Trump’s Tariffs - disruption or design
It is the dual targeting of US alliances politically and globalisation economically which makes the Trump 2.0 administration so lethal. Read More
07 Apr 25
Events update.
Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current ... Read More
07 Apr 25
RUSI Piece on Us Policy- link below
Some clients are having trouble accessing the RUSI piece on US Policy. This is because they have not signed up for their own Quantum Strategy (QS) account and set a password. A reminder on how to do this will be sent shortly. In the meantime, here is direct link to the RU... Read More
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