Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le... Read More

RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wright, Richard Harris & David Roche discuss Jackson Hole policy shift and Trump’s plot against the US Fed. Market implications. Read More

NDTV: David Roche: US Fed Pivot at Jackson Hole: Doubtful Assumptions & False Analysis Read More

The Jackson Hole Pivot Investment Conclusion What Chair Powell's newly announced policy means for investors: More asset bubbles in equities, crypto and non-bank credit; Higher inflation down the road as the money will be printed to fund it; ... Read More

Like it or not, the US Fed's Jackson Hole Conference is going to be all about Fed independence and the battle with President Trump to preserve it. The anodyne (labor market) theme of the Conference will not defuse that bomb. The issue of whether inflation concerns should outwe... Read More

Peter Lewis Money Talk: What is the state of the US economy compared to China’s? Peter Lewis, Gary Ng and Little old me debate, discover and contrast! Read More

So we know that when President Trump does not like reality he dismisses it and those who make him aware of it. Given the President's doubtful grip on reality we ask the question: How well is the the US economy actually doing? We get behind the volatility of people and data a... Read More

Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More

Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum... Read More