The Gormless Eejit! Investment Conclusion Can equities continue to rise while US bonds and the US$ to fall? I got this wrong so far. This note looks at the economic logic of this divorce. It could continue if disruption is over. But that’s unlikely. The wider economi... Read More

Short US$ is a core position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio. Investment flows in and out of the US$ need to be monitored. The TICS data for the month of March do not provide any indication of substantial outflows happening. But that could only be expected after April ... Read More

Talking to Tony on why if Trump wins the War on Trade, the US$ is doomed as global reserve currency. Of course, lack of trust in the US, alienation of allies and the damage to US economic performance would all play a role. But mechanically smaller US current account deficits wil... Read More

Why the US war on trade is fatal for US$ role as reserve currency and US Exceptionalism. What does this mean for US stocks & Treasuries? Read More

How US "Exceptionalism", and the bull market in the US$ and US equities are linked. Since just before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, foreigners' holdings of US financial assets has risen from US$ 20 trn. to US$ 30 trn. Of this increase 10% was down to increased holding by ... Read More