This interview goes forensic on the Russian influence in the Middle East. It covers the flow of Russian hot money and tycoons into some countries; the rivalry between Russian oil and that of OPEC; and what the Iranian-Russian Nexus means for stability in the region. We ... Read More

ME – No Taco but Attack Investment Conclusion. President Trump has not gone TACO on Iran. The US will attack Iran’s nuclear asserts (e.g. Fordow) if Iran does not totally surrender its nuclear assets in short shift. No more negotiations. No more ducking and weaving. No... Read More

NDTV -Middle East War: what will make the war matter to markets ? Read More

RTHK - The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris - the Middle East Conflict The pause before the storm or a durable return to normal? Read More

Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Ira... Read More

Iran's rising stockpile of weapons' grade uranium is proof Tehran is looking to nuclear weapons to replace its shattered proxies, Israel will not tolerate this. The timing of war and its scope is still towards end of this year or early 2026. But this is a guess, A lot depend... Read More

RTHK The Close with Caroln Wright: - What’s the thimking behind the tariffs? - Chibna’s deep reaction - not mild but threatening. - How Netanyahu played Trump to reinforce his ghold on office. What does this mean for Gaza. Will a renewal of hotsilites involve Iran and oil an... Read More

What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. ... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its ... Read More