Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv... Read More

Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w... Read More

Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was... Read More

The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi... Read More

Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current ... Read More

Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co... Read More

Tariffs will continue to be a source of instability in markets. The McKinley Factor, (January 26, 2025) & The Anatomy of Exceptionalism , ( February 10, 2025) analysed the key role of tariffs in President Trump’s thinking and how this influenced how they were used. No need ... Read More

Brace Yourself! Reciprocal US Tariffs. - tariffs likely to be announced April. These are not in market prices. The report sent you on Friday 15, 2025 - The Anatomy of Exceptionalism- deals with the categories of Tariffs President Trump is likely to impose see Chap... Read More

As a P.S. to the Rules of Thump - the Canadian, Chinese and Mexican Tariffs. My rough calculations of the Tariff hit to economies outside the US were included in the Friday (1/31) Update sent to you. But to summarise: The effect of these (1/31 Canadian, China & Me... Read More

Tariffs: Rules of Thump . This is a follow up to my e-mail to to you on Trump's Tariffs last Friday (1/31) & the 2 reports Astern (1/08) & The McKInley Factor (1/26). Cantext; The Mexico, Canada, China tariffs ("Tariffs 1/31") declared by President Trump so far ... Read More