The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More

The US Fed's "Jumbo" 50bp cut in fed fund rates to 4.5% to 5% was not what the well balanced economy needed. It is a step into monetarist populism by the central bank. It unwarrantedly biases Fed policy towards unemployment. . It gives the wrong signal as to where the equilibrium... Read More

IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US... Read More

US Fed- Chair Powell speech: cuts? Yes but how much & how far" less than you think? Read More

Yen Strength - will Japan suck global liquidity dry? Read More

Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why! Read More

Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear. Read More

The Plenum: Much ado about nothing Well, the third Plenum went according to script. Nothing, nothing and then nothing.  Report follows. Read More