The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More
CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce! Read More
I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More
Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
The US Presidential - swing to Trump in polls. Meaning of Trump or Harris victory for markets. China stimulus- will the consumer follow orders and shop? Moldova - the corrosive power of Moscow disinformation and corruption. Middle East- Israeli riposte - the delay means more - ... Read More
The US Election swinging towards Trump? Market outcomes for Trump and Harris victory. Israel strikes back - how matters. China stimulus why the consumer is unlikely to join the party. Moldova - the poser of Russian disinformation. Read More
RTHK - The Close: China fiscal stimulus- good money after bad?. The US Presidential Election - political & market outcome. . The Middle East - which war now? Read More
The Mini Podcast on Macro that may matter to markets - US Presidential, China Stimulus, Israel & Iranian assets - the "Big If". Read More