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18 Nov 24

Portfolio Implications of Trump II

#Currency#World#EU#Conflict#Technology#Greyzone Warfare#Cold War#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Tectonic Shifts#Globalisation#Protectionism#Tariffs#Industrial Raw Materials#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#Volatility#Recession#Ukraine#US Fed#Draghi#EU Commission#EU Parliament#China Real Estate#China Stimulus#Trump Victory

The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More

07 Nov 24

CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency

#US#Conflict#Trade#Protectionism#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Harris#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Markets#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Trump Victory
The World After Trump Victory

CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce! Read More

06 Nov 24

The Winter of Discontent - The post Trump Global Scenario

#World#Greyzone Warfare#Globalisation#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Yen#Harris#US Fed#Middle East#Trump Victory

I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More

05 Nov 24

Money Talk US Election, China Stimulus and the US Fed

#US#Trade#Sanctions#Politics#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#US Fed#Chairman Powell#Global Outlook#Macro Uncertainty

Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More

01 Nov 24

Central Bank Forecast post US Non-Farm Payrolls

#Central Banks#US Fed#ECB#Japan#Japanese Elections#US Labor Market#Bank of Japan

US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic... Read More

07 Oct 24

CNBC Squawk Box- Fed Jumbo cuts - the hidden damage

#Monetary Policy#US Fed

The Silliness of the Fed's JUMBO cut and the hidden damage. Watch on CNBC. Read More

07 Oct 24

Winter of Discontent

#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP

There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More

19 Sep 24

Fed satisfies the market but not the mind

#Finance#Currency#Central Banks#US Fed#Chairman Powell#Populism

The US Fed's "Jumbo" 50bp cut in fed fund rates to 4.5% to 5% was not what the well balanced economy needed. It is a step into monetarist populism by the central bank. It unwarrantedly biases Fed policy towards unemployment. . It gives the wrong signal as to where the equilibrium... Read More

12 Sep 24

Central Banks: Heads Up & Heading Down

#Currency#Politics#Trump#Central Banks#Recession#Harris#US Fed#Draghi#Populism#ECB

IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US... Read More

11 Sep 24

US Presidential Debate - The Undecided.

#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#US Fed#Debate

Harris did better in the debate. But the election is too close to call. Here are the consequences of a Trump or Harris victory Read More

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