A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More

The BoJ chose to do nothing, On the one hand it is afraid to raise rates and then being surprised in a few months when tariffs create deflationary pressure so it has to reduce rates again. On the other hand, if it doesn't raise rates the yen weakens and imported inflation may s... Read More

Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters: What's happened but matters still: China data; Germany - what the Bundesbank believes; Korea - the constitutional crisis; & France - why a decent PM makes no difference - no reform before the populists take over. And to ... Read More

Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the... Read More

US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic... Read More

Japanese elections mean weak coalition government. Markets will see Yen weaken - Boj stops normalising policy. Weak yen and likelihood of fiscal packages (to buy votes) means stringer equities. JGB tields will rise reflecting bigger deficits. Read More

RTHK Discussing: likely outcome of China's NPC Standing Committee on Nov 4 to 8; the results of the Japanese election what does instability do for assets; and the inevitable discussion of the US election,. Read More

Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. ... Read More

There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More

A great discussion of China's market ramp and its sustainability with Peter Lewis and Enzio Pfeil- everything from culture to Hayek Read More