Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou Investment Conclusion I’m not shorting French sovereign bonds (OATS) now. Shorting OATS now would only pay off if there are immediate legislative elections. That could be a result of a vote of no confidence in the Bayrou governm... Read More

Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le... Read More

The US-European Meetings: Good as it’ll get but not good enough Investment Conclusion Markets will ignore the outcome of the Washington talks. There are no implications for higher tariffs on Russian oil trade and its beneficiaries. So oil will settle down in the high ... Read More

Odd Bins – Cutting long HK Equities – TICS Contradict – Shipping’s Pseudo Boom. Investment Conclusion Hong Kong equities are being cut back. The Hang Seng has performed. It’s a proxy for China where things are getting economically tougher. And excess liquidity, judged... Read More

The European Cavalry Charge to DC! Investment Conclusion What’s set happening in Washington on August 18 can have consequences for markets. Zelensky plus the four PMs of Italy, UK, Germany and France, the President of the EU Commission and the President of Finland will ... Read More

Summit – The Good Story within the Bad Investment Conclusion Markets will ignore the Summit results as investor redlines of financial damage have not been breached. These red lines were: (1) Trump losing patience with Putin and coming down hard on Russia wit... Read More

The Trump – Putin Summit & Other Matters . Investment Conclusion The risk of major market fallout from the Trump-Putin summit is about 25%. The assets to own would be Gold and the Yen. Meanwhile the shipping news points to continued slowdown on the ... Read More

The Mind of Miran The Context. Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed is a small but significant step in what is increasingly becoming the creation of an alternative US monetary financial system based on Stable Coin Dominance, Crypto Financing and Monetisation of in... Read More

Odd Bins 08.04.2025 - Some significant shifts in portfolio positions Investment Conclusion The long Yen Vs US$ position is being reinstated. The long/overweight German equity positions is being sold. Risk factors for global equities are rising, not falling e... Read More

Odd Bins - some portfolio chnages of consequence! Investment Conclusion. The long Yen Vs US$ position is being reinstated. The long/overweight German equity positions is being sold. Risk factors for equities global equities are rising, not falling even if the threat of a re... Read More