Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More

Things of Note: Shipping The shipping data is interesting. US container imports for May were down 7% through all ports. US shipping exports (including non container traffic) were similarly weak. The Port of LA data continues to show a bid drop in container imports 3 wee... Read More

Things of Note: I nvestment Conclusion The shipping data points to weakening US import demand and GDP. China appears to be replacing lost exports to the US with those to other Asian countries. Trump’s tariff letters are likely to be taken as more Guff to be followed by T... Read More

Interregnum Investment Conclusion This is a short-term interregnum of peace and happiness which will not last long. On May 23 the portfolio sold 10% of safe haven assets (oil & gold) and bought European equities and the Euro. It is probable that President Tru... Read More

RTHK The Close: Richard Harris, Carolyn Wright & David Roche : will july be Trump Taco or Armageddon time Read More

The Port of Los Angeles Inward Bound Container Data continue to show 137k and 115k TEU arrivals per week in eacjh of the next two weeks and a big drop thereafter. Much of that drop may be ironed out as we get closer to the the week (29) of July 13 to 19. That's what happened t... Read More

President Trump – Love Him or Hate Him – Don’t Underestimate Him! Investment Conclusion: When a big ship goes full circle in a stormy sea, it creates what is known as a 'Duck Pool' of calm water (once use to land naval sea planes). That lasts a while before the big... Read More

On Monday this program discusses why the hump in maximum Middle Est Risk is over and what lies ahead. Read More

Trump: Donald J. Trump @realDonald Trump CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their ... Read More

ME- First the Bang. Now the Whimper! Investment Conclusion The time of maximum risk is over. The Mullahs will shift to survival mode. They will not seek to escalate militarily – though a few revenge suicide bombings could happen. Any significant escalation by Iran ... Read More