Jackson Hole - Chair Powell's Speech: This means further monetary policy easing and Fed rate cuts. Here is Chair Powell's logic: Labour Marke t There exists a curious balance: supply and demand for labor are both contracting. This creates a "curious" ... Read More
This is the Quantum Strategy WhatsApp audio recording of the outcome of US-EU meetings held in Washington on August 18, 2025. The conclusion is that this will not stop the war. But the outcome avoided the worst for now. This will allow markets to largely ignore it. If you... Read More
This is the Quantum Strategy WhatsApp recorded update of the market signifcance of the Europe - US meeting in Wahington on Monday, August 18. here is a prose summary Read More
Update Japan - US tariffs. This is an update of the state of play on Japanese US Tairffs which i sent to you two days ago (J apan - wosening news on execution of US trade deal) Japan's Chief Negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, has returned to Japan. There is no joint ... Read More
US - Japan Trade Deal - wosening news on execution, Tokyo believed it had negotiated a promise that Japan and the EU would get the same 15% maximum tariff on virtually all items in Trump’s country-wide “reciprocal tariffs.” Tariffs below 15% would be raised to 15%. Tarif... Read More
the Shifting sands report had a mistake. The text said US tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminium was 25% it is of course 50%. the figure of 50% was throughout the report - including grahics and tables. sorry! d Read More
Shipping Data. So far, Chinese total exports have weathered US tariffs without a contraction. Exports to other places than the US have grown and more than offset losses to the US. That is "normal" as US exports are only US 500bn out of a total of nearly US$ 4 trn. The questi... Read More
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More
Things of Note: Shipping The shipping data is interesting. US container imports for May were down 7% through all ports. US shipping exports (including non container traffic) were similarly weak. The Port of LA data continues to show a bid drop in container imports 3 wee... Read More
The Port of Los Angeles Inward Bound Container Data continue to show 137k and 115k TEU arrivals per week in eacjh of the next two weeks and a big drop thereafter. Much of that drop may be ironed out as we get closer to the the week (29) of July 13 to 19. That's what happened t... Read More