EU-US Tariff Deal: Ursula Sings from the President’s Hymn sheet Investment Conclusion: Equity Markets will like the deal. It removes trade war uncertainty. But more for equities than any other asset class, the uncertainty about the hit to profits and discount factors... Read More
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24 Jul 25
Tariffs: How Good is Bad? The US-Japanese hadshake deal
Tariffs: How Good is Bad? The US-Japanese hadshake deal Investment Conclusion The equity markets are rejoicing at the latest US tariff deals. I am not. And neither are bond markets or the US $. The Japanese handshake 15% tariff deal is better than the mooted 25% tariffs. Bu... Read More
21 Jul 25
Shifting Sands
#Putin#Japanese Elections#Trump Policy#Japanese Yen#Currency ( Yen )#Yen Shorts#Putin Strategy#Vladimir Putin#President Putin#Yen (JGBs)#Japan (JGBs)#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Bonds (JGBs)#Boj what to expect#BoJ#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#President Trump#Japan Senate Election Results#Trump Emotional Tariffs#Trump Economic Tariffs
Shifting Sands Investment Conclusion The result of the Japanese election heralds a period of weak government at a critical time. That undermines the safe haven status of the Yen. The Yen long position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio is being sold. A short... Read More
15 Jul 25
President Trump’s Putin Pivot
#Tariffs#Trade Wars#US-China Trade War#Trade War#Ukraine War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#EU-US Trade War#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine
President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More
13 Jul 25
Trade Update
#Tariffs#Trade.#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current... Read More
10 Jul 25
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
#Tariffs#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)#US Federal Reserve Independence.#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#FOMC Minutes#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More
07 Jul 25
Things of note
Things of Note: Shipping The shipping data is interesting. US container imports for May were down 7% through all ports. US shipping exports (including non container traffic) were similarly weak. The Port of LA data continues to show a bid drop in container imports 3 wee... Read More
07 Jul 25
Things of Note
Things of Note: I nvestment Conclusion The shipping data points to weakening US import demand and GDP. China appears to be replacing lost exports to the US with those to other Asian countries. Trump’s tariff letters are likely to be taken as more Guff to be followed by T... Read More
03 Jul 25
Interregnum
Interregnum Investment Conclusion This is a short-term interregnum of peace and happiness which will not last long. On May 23 the portfolio sold 10% of safe haven assets (oil & gold) and bought European equities and the Euro. It is probable that President Tru... Read More
02 Jun 25
Update: US Container traffic and Escalation in the Baltics and Ukraine?
Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t... Read More
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