President Trump – Love Him or Hate Him – Don’t Underestimate Him! Investment Conclusion: When a big ship goes full circle in a stormy sea, it creates what is known as a 'Duck Pool' of calm water (once use to land naval sea planes). That lasts a while before the big... Read More

Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement Investment Conclusion The war will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to. It can also tip into a war focussed on regime-change (as Israel ambitions) or a pause for President Tr... Read More

Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Ira... Read More

Iran's rising stockpile of weapons' grade uranium is proof Tehran is looking to nuclear weapons to replace its shattered proxies, Israel will not tolerate this. The timing of war and its scope is still towards end of this year or early 2026. But this is a guess, A lot depend... Read More

What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. ... Read More

Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its ... Read More

Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u... Read More

Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will... Read More