President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More
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14 Jul 25
RTHK: The Close Business and Market Discussion - Jeff Cheung, David Roche & Richard Harris.- Is August 1st for TACO or for real?
Is the August 1st deadline set by Trump more bragadachio or for real? this podcast provides the answer. It's for real. And it goes into the reasons why. Read More
14 Jul 25
Monday Odd Bins.
Shipping Data. So far, Chinese total exports have weathered US tariffs without a contraction. Exports to other places than the US have grown and more than offset losses to the US. That is "normal" as US exports are only US 500bn out of a total of nearly US$ 4 trn. The questi... Read More
13 Jul 25
Trade Update
#Tariffs#Trade.#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current... Read More
10 Jul 25
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
#Tariffs#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)#US Federal Reserve Independence.#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#FOMC Minutes#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More
03 Jul 25
Interregnum
Interregnum Investment Conclusion This is a short-term interregnum of peace and happiness which will not last long. On May 23 the portfolio sold 10% of safe haven assets (oil & gold) and bought European equities and the Euro. It is probable that President Tru... Read More
02 Jun 25
NDTV India: Tariffs & Why Trump will escalate & Potential Russian Escalation which would matter to markets
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs#Fentanyl tariffs#Movie Tariffs.
Three ideas: Trump is more likely to escalate than de-escalate after the International Trade Court ruling. What does this mean for markets. And the escaltion of Russian hostilities in Europe - one to watch and which markets are ignoring Read More
02 Jun 25
Update: US Container traffic and Escalation in the Baltics and Ukraine?
Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t... Read More
29 May 25
Trump Trade Policies in disarray
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Fentanyl tariffs#Court of International Trade Ruling
The US Court of International trade has ruled that the Trump Administration’s trade tariffs, both reciprocal and fentanyl, are illegal. The US Court of International Trade says Trump overstepped his authority - using a 1977 federal economic emergency law. The law does not ... Read More
13 May 25
The Phoney Peace?
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#China Tariffs#Fentanyl tariffs
The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more... Read More
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