President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More
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13 Jul 25
Trade Update
#Tariffs#Trade.#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current... Read More
10 Jul 25
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
#Tariffs#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)#US Federal Reserve Independence.#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#FOMC Minutes#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More
03 Jul 25
Interregnum
Interregnum Investment Conclusion This is a short-term interregnum of peace and happiness which will not last long. On May 23 the portfolio sold 10% of safe haven assets (oil & gold) and bought European equities and the Euro. It is probable that President Tru... Read More
05 May 25
China: No Pushover!
#Tariffs#US-China Cold War#US-China Relations#US-China Trade War#US-China Trade Relations#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#Fentanyl tariffs#China trade war escalatory dominance#China Trade War#China & Global South
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as... Read More
20 Apr 25
On a Train in China
#Tariffs#China Stimulus#US-China Trade War#People's Bank of China (PBoC)#US-China Trade Relations#PBoC (People's Bank of China)#China Renminbi#Economy (China)#US-China#Trump's 100 Policy Blitz.China GDP#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause... Read More
15 Apr 25
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction)
#Trump Policy#Trade Wars#US-China Trade War#Trump Administration#Donald Trump#Trade War#Trump Tariffs.#EU-US Trade War#Trump - Putin Call#President Trump#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction) Investment Conclusion The weaponisation of the global economy has a life cycle of its own. Economic Weaponisation is growing in lethality and sophistication. Weaponisation is shaping t... Read More
14 Apr 25
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
#Tariffs#Escalation#Ladder Of Escalation#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv... Read More
11 Apr 25
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w... Read More
11 Apr 25
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
#Tariffs#Trump Tariffs.#Tariffs China Mexico Canada#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was... Read More
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