FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More
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09 Jan 25
FOMC - the future confusion.
#US#US Fed#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
23 Dec 24
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
#US#Trump#US Fed#US Federal Reserve
Quantum Strategy - David Roche: The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters. The 5 things that could go wrong or right next year. The data for this week Read More
23 Dec 24
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
#US#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Protectionism#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#US Fed#Israel#Iran#France#Markets#Putin#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Germany#Escalation#Trump Policy#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More
23 Dec 24
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
#US#Protectionism#Tariffs#Sanctions#Oil#China#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Russia#Ukraine#US Fed#Chairman Powell#France#Japan#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#China Stimulus#Trump Policy#Turkey#French Sovereign Debt#French Government#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
#US#Central Banks#US Fed#Chairman Powell#Euro#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#JPY
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
25 Nov 24
Incidentally
#US#Sanctions#China#Trump#Global Liquidity#Iran#Dark Fleet#Shadow Fleet
“War is not caused by incidents, but its timing and trajectory often are. " There are three macro “incidents” that may matter to markets. 1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD... Read More
07 Nov 24
CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency
#US#Trade#Protectionism#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Harris#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Markets#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Trump Victory
CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce! Read More
05 Nov 24
Money Talk US Election, China Stimulus and the US Fed
#US#Trade#Sanctions#Politics#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#US Fed#Chairman Powell#Global Outlook#Macro Uncertainty
Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More
07 Oct 24
Winter of Discontent
#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
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