Iran's rising stockpile of weapons' grade uranium is proof Tehran is looking to nuclear weapons to replace its shattered proxies, Israel will not tolerate this. The timing of war and its scope is still towards end of this year or early 2026. But this is a guess, A lot depend... Read More
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27 Feb 25
Middle East – Iran – Update – Nukes
#Trump#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Iranian Confrontation#Trump Administration
24 Feb 25
German Election - not 1st class but may get us there
#FDP#Europe (Germany#Helmut Kohl#Chancellor of Germany#Chancellor Helmut Kohl#German Chancellor Helmut Kohl#German Bundestag#German Constitution#AfD (Alternative for Germany)#Free Democrats (FDP)#CDU/CSU#Christian Democratic Union (CDU)#Markus Söder (CSU)#AfD#German Federal Election#BSW Bundnis Sahra Wagenknect#Friedrich Mertz
We are staying long German equities, particularly defence, on the grounds that the election result will result in economic reform and state investment in key sectors like the military and productivity boosting mechanisms laid out in the Draghi and Letta reports. Read More
23 Feb 25
German Election Update: An Economy Class Seat Instead of 1st Class to the Right Destination
#Germany#CDU#SPD#FDP#NATO#German Politics#Chancellor of Germany#German Bundestag#EU NATO#German Constitution#German Parliament#German Election Results#AfD (Alternative for Germany)#German Elections#Free Democrats (FDP)#German Equities#CDU/CSU#Social Democratic Party (SPD)#Christian Democratic Union (CDU)##Bundestag Wahl
A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is... Read More
18 Feb 25
Divorce a l'Americain
#EU#Trump#Russia#Ukraine#Putin#Xi#Trump Policy#Grayzone Warfare#NATO#Trump Administration#Ukraine War#Europeans#President Putin#Liberal World Order#Lavrov#Ushakov#President Xi
Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM... Read More
14 Feb 25
Anatomy of Exceptionalism
#US-China Cold War#USA#American Economy#US Equities#USD (US Dollar)#US-China#US Exceptionalism#US Fiscal Policy#US Sovereign Debt#DOGE
US Exceptionalism is the investor conviction that “things can’t go wrong in the US of America” for you or your money. Like Frankenstein, “Exceptionalism” is half man, and half beast, half economic reality and half perception - laced with large dollops of hope. The markets ca... Read More
06 Feb 25
“Exceptionalism” and the USD
#US$##US Exceptionalism#US Equity Flows#TIC
This update looks at US “Exceptionalism” and USD strength. The drivers of both are international equity flows as much as safe haven demand for US assets or central bank activity.. The investment conclusions are that a bear market in US equities would have have negative implic... Read More
28 Jan 25
DeepSeek – Deeply Seeking the Significance.
#Tariffs#China#Tech Disruption#Geopolitical Disruption#Tech Sanction Policy.
DeepSeek disrupts Tech creating as many winners (AI users) as losers (the overhyped US Magnificent 7 and Chatbot purveyors). It puts Chinese selected tech companies back on the radar for international investors. But most of all it hefts China’s strategic position in the Greyzone... Read More
28 Jan 25
The McKinley Factor
#Populism#Investment Strategy#Asset Bubbles#EMU (Eurozone)#Central Banks (US Federal Reserve)#US Exceptionalism#Axis of Autocracies#Alliance of Democracies
Investment Conclusion. Exceptionalism is not just about benefits but costs. The economic policies and geopolitical disruption of the second Trump Presidency are certainly exceptional but will incur more economic costs than benefits. These costs will be spread about the worl... Read More
13 Jan 25
US Sanctions - Russian Oil Tanks
#EU#Energy#Trump#Iran#Trump Policy#Shadow Fleet#Undersea Cables#Grayzone Warfare#Russian Energy#Russian Energy Exports.
Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude... Read More
08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
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