We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
23 Dec 24
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
#US#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Protectionism#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#US Fed#Israel#Iran#France#Markets#Putin#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Germany#Escalation#Trump Policy#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More
19 Dec 24
Peter Lewis Money Talk - The Fed removes the markets' drip feed. .....what does it mean for economies and markets
#Trade#Tariffs#Trump#Recession#Yen#Populism#ECB#Markets#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
The Fed acts to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2025. Underlying this is that the Fed Funds Rate is already close to the neutral rate and more cuts are not needed given that the economy is motoring and inflation is a bit high. But the knock-on effects on markets arou... Read More
07 Nov 24
CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency
#US#Trade#Protectionism#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Harris#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Markets#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Trump Victory
CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce! Read More
22 Oct 24
When Macro Will Matter
#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Plateshifts#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#China#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
07 Oct 24
Winter of Discontent
#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
29 Sep 24
Mind the Gaps!
#Markets
Mind the gaps between hopes and realities to come. Here are 5 gaps between investor assumptions and likely outcomes that underpin a bear market next year Read More
03 Jun 24
South Africa The Beginning Of The End
#Elections#Politics#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#Inequality#Corruption#Government policy#Unemployment#Patronage
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
17 May 24
China Real Estate - No Bazooka
#Finance#China#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#Bonds#Government Intervention#Real Estate
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
15 Mar 24
Japan Boj Mood Music
#Monetary Policy#Japan#Markets#Strategy Archive#Bank of Japan#Government Debt#Interest Rates#Banking#Yield Curve Control
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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